[Magdalen] An Independent Scotland?

[Roland Orr]

The Bank of England, obviously, will N0T support Scotland. Some UK banks 
will move out of Scotland.
Roland

On 12/09/2014 19:18, Roger Stokes wrote:
> On 12/09/2014 17:45, Cantor03--- via Magdalen wrote:
>> Scotland will vote "yes" or "no" about staying in the UK on
>> September 18th.  It's hard for me to imagine how it has all
>> come down to this, but I guess I do not understand the factors
>> underlying desire for Scottish independence.
>
> After all Scotland has only been ruled from London for three centuries 
> ;-)  I can understand the desire to celebrate all things Scottish, but 
> they can do that anyway.  Part of the reason for the referendum is 
> that at the last General Election for the Scottish Parliament the 
> Scottish Nationalist Party got a majority of the seats at Holyrood and 
> having a referendum was part of their manifesto, so they had to push 
> for it.
>
> I fear that the Yes campaign has not thought things through and does 
> not have convincing (to me) answers to some important questions. One 
> of those is on the currency they will use.  They insist they will have 
> a currency union with what will be left of the UK.  The value of the 
> pound will then be driven by the English economy, which will seek a 
> situation which is the best for England, Wales and Northern Ireland - 
> but not necessarily for Scotland.  How independent are you if you 
> depend on another country for your currency?
>
> They would also need to have their own central bank as lender of last 
> resort, which would need to be backed by the Bank of England until it 
> had built up sufficient reserves by higher taxes and/or lower benefits 
> so life would not be a bed of roses for a few years at least.  
> Historically Scotland has been supported by England for most of its 
> history since it has been a net recipient of public funds - receiving 
> more from the public purse than it contributed to it.
>
> Despite what the Yes campaign says membership of the EU and of NATO 
> should not be assumed.  Countries with their own regions seeking 
> autonomy will not be quick to endorse a Scottish application to join 
> the EU, which could well mean they need to adopt the Euro and so put 
> financial control even further away in Brussels, and make trade with 
> England more expensive.
>
> Scotland and England would also tend to drift apart politically as 
> Scotland is essentially left of centre with Labour as the next biggest 
> party after the SNP while the Conservatives would have an inbuilt 
> majority at Westminster.  Currently there is precisely one 
> Conservative MP representing a Scottish constituency.  That is not 
> good for democracy.
>
>> I note that among other companies, my bank, a USA affiliate
>> of RBS = Royal Bank of Scotland (Citizens Bank) has stated
>> that its headquarters will exit Scotland if the vote is "yes".
>
> Financial institutions want to be where there is economic stability 
> and a new country, which will have no credit record and so will pay 
> higher interest on its borrowings, does not provide that.  These 
> companies also do most of their domestic business in England.  Now the 
> Yes campaign is complaining that some businesses are pointing out that 
> the cost of living could rise in Scotland if it becomes independent.  
> This is the sort of information the voters should hear if they are 
> going to cast an informed vote.
>
> Basically the Yes campaign wants people to vote with their hearts 
> rather than their heads.  That is not sensible and is liable to lead 
> to heartache later.  If (as is quite possible) the Scottish economy 
> falters more firms will move more than their headquarters South, 
> reducing the tax base further as more of their young people emigrate 
> to England just as a lot of the young Irish are emigrating now because 
> there are no jobs for them in their home country.
>
>>   I
>> personally hope for a "no" vote.
>
> as do I for all the reasons above.
>
> Roger