[Magdalen] Stupid question

[Roger Stokes]

On 04/05/2016 23:40, Kate Conant wrote:
> 1948 Harry S. Truman (D) 57.1% 49.5%
> 1960 John F. Kennedy (D) 56.4% 49.7%
> 1968 Richard M. Nixon (R) 56.1% 43.4%
> 1992 William J. Clinton (D) 68.8% 43.0%
> 1996 William J. Clinton (D) 70.4% 49.0%
> 2000 George W. Bush (R) 50.3% 47.8%

that does not tell the whole story. The vote in the Electoral College 
does not, and cannot, mirror the popular vote accurately. In each state 
the candidate who gets more votes than any otrher candidate (not 
necessarily an overall majority) gets all that state's votes in the 
Electoral College.  In only one of those years did a plurality in the 
popular vote (more than any other single candidate) not translate into a 
majority of the Electoral College - 2000 when the Florida vote went to 
the Supreme Court over how to treat the hanging chads, ballots where the 
punch had not totally removed the bit of ballot paper. In the other 
election minority candidates split the vote, denying the winner an 
overall majority. Looking only at the two major parties we get:

1948    Truman    49.55%    Dewey    45.07%
1960    Kennedy`49.72%    Nixon    49.55%
1968    Nixon    43.42%    Humphrey 42.72%    Wallace    13.53% (and 
actually carrying some states)
1992    Clinton    43.01%    Bush    37.45%    Perot's 18.91% was spread 
too evenly to carry any state
1996    Clinton    49.24%    Dole    40.71%

which leaves us with

2000    Gore    48.38%    Bush    47.87%

as the only election in living memory where the candidate who would have 
won in a first past the post popular vote election did not secure a 
majority in the Electoral College and so become President. I feel I 
should insert a word of warning here.  If you did away with the 
Electoral College then a vote in Utah, Florida or California would carry 
the same weight.  With the Electoral College some states are regarded as 
"safe" for one perty or the other so there is no real need for either of 
them to put significant effort into canvassing there. That would not be 
the case if the election were decided on the popular vote alone. Parties 
would start hitting all states with their campaigning.  Be wary what you 
ask for.

Roger