[Magdalen] Brexit (was Re: 14 November)

[Roger Stokes]

On 18/11/2018 02:19, Scott Knitter wrote:
> Roger, what would you say are the chances of a second referendum?
>
> I'd guess (not being very informed about all the factors) that it's a less
> than 50% chance, perhaps way less.

We are in uncharted territory here. As to your specific question I tend 
to agree with you. We are not used to referenda or citizens' initiatives 
and are essentially a representative democracy. Organizing and holding a 
second referendum would need new legislation (which could be passed 
quickly) but take time we don't have. Theresa May is right in saying 
that getting rid of her would not help Brexit because that would 
introduce even more uncertainty as to who would succeed her and there is 
no clear and acceptable person to do so. If we were to have a referendum 
then there isn't a simple choice as there are three options - accept the 
deal, leave without a deal or say "Please can we stay?"

If she can't get the proposed deal through Parliament then what 
happens?  The default position is to crash out without a deal, which 
would be hugely damaging to the country. Alternatively there is the 
brave (for a politician) option of saying that the referendum was meant 
to be indicative rather than determinative, which is why we then needed 
legislation to implement the result. They could then hold a free vote in 
Parliament over whether to ask to stay or not. The government's position 
could then be that "we tried to negotiate a deal which respects the 
result of the referendum but is in the country's best interests. This 
proved to be impossible so we have to go for the best available option."

> It seems so reasonable, yet it's quite unusual to have a do-over of a done
> vote. I can understand the conflict over the idea.

One significant difference between this and most votes is that when we 
elect our representatives there is another election a few years down the 
line if we don't like what they're doing. This is a one-way door and it 
would take many years to negotiate re-entry if we decide we have made a 
mistake, and that would be on worse terms than we have at present. We 
would no longer get the rebate on what we pay and we would have to 
accept the Euro as our currency.

Roger