[Magdalen] Whither Scotland?

[Jim Guthrie]

A bit off track on the Scot names . . . but this is interesting research on the 
influence of surnames on economic well-being as well as social mobility:

Published by EH.Net (September 2014)

Gregory Clark, The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility. 
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014. xii + 364 pp. $30 (cloth), 
ISBN: 978-0-691-16254-6.

Reviewed for EH.Net by Laura Salisbury, Department of Economics, York 
University.

In The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility, Gregory 
Clark (UC-Davis) marshals centuries of historical data for the purpose of 
characterizing social mobility in the very long run. Examining the performance 
of individuals with historically elite surnames, he argues that social status is 
dramatically more persistent than most existing estimates suggest. Covering a 
broad range of geographic regions and historical periods, Clark’s findings are 
striking. However, I find his interpretation of these findings less convincing.

The book is divided into three parts. In the first part, Clark introduces his 
methodology for measuring social mobility, and he characterizes long-term 
mobility in three countries:  Sweden, the United States, and the United Kingdom. 
The methodology involves identifying historically elite surnames from each 
country and, over a very long period, tracking their relative representation in 
both institutions of higher learning and in professions like law and medicine. 
In the case of modern England, he is able to look at wealth outcomes as well. 
Clark finds that, in all three countries, individuals with elite surnames are 
significantly overrepresented in high status positions. Using these surname 
groups, he estimates an implied rate of intergenerational persistence in each 
country to be in the range of 0.75-0.80; in contrast, conventional estimates are 
typically less than 0.60.

Clark goes on to describe the mechanism that he believes to be driving this high 
degree of persistence. In brief, he argues that a person’s life outcomes are 
determined in part by what he calls “social competence,” or underlying ability, 
which is only imperfectly measured by the life outcomes of the person’s parents. 
As surnames are transmitted across many generations, they embed more information 
about this underlying competence, hence the greater degree of persistence 
measured using surnames instead of parental achievements.

Clark suggests that underlying social competence is transmitted across 
generations genetically, or by a social process resembling the transmission of 
genes. In part 2, he presents evidence on socioeconomic persistence from other 
countries (India, China, Chile, and Japan) that he argues is consistent with 
this interpretation. In particular, he shows that persistence of social status 
is high in an endogamous society, and the degree of persistence is not 
appreciably interrupted by political regime change. Part 3 contains closing 
remarks on the future of social mobility within and across countries.

This book contributes a great deal to the discussion on social mobility. One of 
Clark’s major insights is that studies of mobility across two generations — the 
industry standard until recently — must be plagued with error in the measurement 
of socioeconomic status, and that taking a very long view of mobility may yield 
very different results. The major roadblock that other researchers have 
encountered is that there is little data out there that would enable such a 
study. The use of surnames is an inventive tool for overcoming these data 
limitations.  Other researchers (myself included) are taking steps to 
incorporate multiple generations into studies of intergenerational income 
transmission using historical census data. However, very few such studies are 
able to look at mobility over more than a few generations. Clark’s book uses 
data spanning hundreds of years, and, as such, provides an entirely novel 
perspective on this important question.

Of course, the ability to take this very long-run view comes at a cost. The bulk 
of the book centers on the transmission of professional or educational 
attainment among elite families or ethnic and religious groups; most studies 
examine income transmission for a nationally representative sample of families. 
The process of status transmission among elites may be fundamentally different 
from the process of status transmission in the entire population. If this is the 
case, it means that Clark’s results apply to a very particular type of 
persistence and should be interpreted as such. Clark acknowledges this 
possibility and argues against it; however, I think this is still an open 
question. Nonetheless, even if the book merely demonstrates persistence of elite 
status over many generations, this in itself is an important contribution that 
both academics and policymakers should value.

What I find less convincing is Clark’s account of the mechanism by which social 
status is maintained over such long periods. He is very quick to attribute 
social status to productive individual characteristics. In particular, he 
presumes that the achievement of status markers like education or wealth is 
driven by social competence, which he suggests is transmitted genetically.

It seems important to note that there is more to social class than “competence.” 
The tendency for elites to employ social, cultural and legal institutions to 
maintain their position is well explored in the literature on political economy 
and history. I think Clark is too quick to dismiss the various institutional 
mechanisms through which class is transmitted in the societies under 
investigation in this book. He argues that, because these countries have 
different institutions and social structures, the cross-country commonality in 
the persistence of social status is evidence that these institutions do not 
matter. I would be surprised if this convinces many readers. Of course, the 
broad collection of countries studied in this book makes it difficult to fully 
explore the unique institutional environments that may cause social class to 
persist in each place. Still, I do not think that Clark gives sufficient 
evidence for us to conclude that genetics are the primary driver of status 
persistence.

Take, for example, the discussion of mobility in India (chapter 8). Clark shows 
an extremely high degree of persistence of social status, which he measures 
using surnames common to different castes; he also notes that endogamous 
marriages have long been prevalent in India. Clark takes this as evidence that 
social class is genetically transmitted — couples are more likely to transmit 
genetic traits enabling success to their children if both halves of the couple 
possess these traits. However, a compelling alternative explanation is that 
India’s relatively rigid, socially enforced class system precludes social 
mobility while simultaneously discouraging marriages that cross class lines. It 
seems impossible to disentangle institutional barriers to class mobility from 
genetics in this case.

In short, Clark’s book begins a fascinating and important conversation about 
social mobility. He favors a single, unifying explanation for the persistence of 
social status across the globe, which may not convince many readers. Still, I 
think Clark’s findings are important to engage with, and they will factor into 
discussions about social mobility for years to come.

Laura Salisbury studies historical marriage markets, income mobility, and the 
development and consequences of historical income support programs. Her 
publications include “Selective Migration, Wages, and Occupational Mobility in 
Nineteenth Century America,” Explorations in Economic History, 2014.

Copyright (c) 2014 by EH.Net. All rights reserved. This work may be copied for 
non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given to the author and the 
list. For other permission, please contact the EH.Net Administrator 
(administrator at eh.net). Published by EH.Net (September 2014). All EH.Net reviews 
are archived at http://www.eh.net/BookReview


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Cheers,
Jim Guthrie