[Magdalen] Whither Scotland?

[James Oppenheimer]

Since they voted no, I guess we should toss this subject line.

James W. Oppenheimer
*“If you have a chance to accomplish something that will make things better
for people coming behind you, and you don’t do it, you're wasting your time
on this Earth.”  -- *Roberto Clemente

On Sat, Sep 20, 2014 at 6:03 PM, James Oppenheimer <oppenheimerjw at gmail.com>
wrote:

> It's interesting to think how much impact genetics has over the long run.
> For instance, If I were actually a descendent of Rashi, I would have his
> genetic code.
>
> How much?  Well, if we figure twenty-five to thirty years per generation,
> and assume twenty to thirty generations, the amount of genetic component
> may be something like one half to the twenty-fifth or thirtieth power. That
> would be roughly 0.000000001 give or take.  That is not very much.
>
> 9.313225746154785e-10 for thirty generations.  This cool rendering of real
> numbers is essentially the number displayed, but with the decimal point
> shifting to the left ten (10!) places.  A very small number indeed.
>
> However, if one postulates that the elite families consciously strive to
> hold on to their eliteness, I suspect this all by itself would account for
> a tendency of the elites to stay elite. Not even considering the superior
> education and general background development the elites get...
>
>
>
>
>
> James W. Oppenheimer
> *“If you have a chance to accomplish something that will make things
> better for people coming behind you, and you don’t do it, you're wasting
> your time on this Earth.”  -- *Roberto Clemente
>
> On Sat, Sep 20, 2014 at 8:09 AM, Jim Guthrie <jguthrie at pipeline.com>
> wrote:
>
>> A bit off track on the Scot names . . . but this is interesting research
>> on the influence of surnames on economic well-being as well as social
>> mobility:
>>
>> Published by EH.Net (September 2014)
>>
>> Gregory Clark, The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social
>> Mobility. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014. xii + 364 pp.
>> $30 (cloth), ISBN: 978-0-691-16254-6.
>>
>> Reviewed for EH.Net by Laura Salisbury, Department of Economics, York
>> University.
>>
>> In The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility,
>> Gregory Clark (UC-Davis) marshals centuries of historical data for the
>> purpose of characterizing social mobility in the very long run. Examining
>> the performance of individuals with historically elite surnames, he argues
>> that social status is dramatically more persistent than most existing
>> estimates suggest. Covering a broad range of geographic regions and
>> historical periods, Clark’s findings are striking. However, I find his
>> interpretation of these findings less convincing.
>>
>> The book is divided into three parts. In the first part, Clark introduces
>> his methodology for measuring social mobility, and he characterizes
>> long-term mobility in three countries:  Sweden, the United States, and the
>> United Kingdom. The methodology involves identifying historically elite
>> surnames from each country and, over a very long period, tracking their
>> relative representation in both institutions of higher learning and in
>> professions like law and medicine. In the case of modern England, he is
>> able to look at wealth outcomes as well. Clark finds that, in all three
>> countries, individuals with elite surnames are significantly
>> overrepresented in high status positions. Using these surname groups, he
>> estimates an implied rate of intergenerational persistence in each country
>> to be in the range of 0.75-0.80; in contrast, conventional estimates are
>> typically less than 0.60.
>>
>> Clark goes on to describe the mechanism that he believes to be driving
>> this high degree of persistence. In brief, he argues that a person’s life
>> outcomes are determined in part by what he calls “social competence,” or
>> underlying ability, which is only imperfectly measured by the life outcomes
>> of the person’s parents. As surnames are transmitted across many
>> generations, they embed more information about this underlying competence,
>> hence the greater degree of persistence measured using surnames instead of
>> parental achievements.
>>
>> Clark suggests that underlying social competence is transmitted across
>> generations genetically, or by a social process resembling the transmission
>> of genes. In part 2, he presents evidence on socioeconomic persistence from
>> other countries (India, China, Chile, and Japan) that he argues is
>> consistent with this interpretation. In particular, he shows that
>> persistence of social status is high in an endogamous society, and the
>> degree of persistence is not appreciably interrupted by political regime
>> change. Part 3 contains closing remarks on the future of social mobility
>> within and across countries.
>>
>> This book contributes a great deal to the discussion on social mobility.
>> One of Clark’s major insights is that studies of mobility across two
>> generations — the industry standard until recently — must be plagued with
>> error in the measurement of socioeconomic status, and that taking a very
>> long view of mobility may yield very different results. The major roadblock
>> that other researchers have encountered is that there is little data out
>> there that would enable such a study. The use of surnames is an inventive
>> tool for overcoming these data limitations.  Other researchers (myself
>> included) are taking steps to incorporate multiple generations into studies
>> of intergenerational income transmission using historical census data.
>> However, very few such studies are able to look at mobility over more than
>> a few generations. Clark’s book uses data spanning hundreds of years, and,
>> as such, provides an entirely novel perspective on this important question.
>>
>> Of course, the ability to take this very long-run view comes at a cost.
>> The bulk of the book centers on the transmission of professional or
>> educational attainment among elite families or ethnic and religious groups;
>> most studies examine income transmission for a nationally representative
>> sample of families. The process of status transmission among elites may be
>> fundamentally different from the process of status transmission in the
>> entire population. If this is the case, it means that Clark’s results apply
>> to a very particular type of persistence and should be interpreted as such.
>> Clark acknowledges this possibility and argues against it; however, I think
>> this is still an open question. Nonetheless, even if the book merely
>> demonstrates persistence of elite status over many generations, this in
>> itself is an important contribution that both academics and policymakers
>> should value.
>>
>> What I find less convincing is Clark’s account of the mechanism by which
>> social status is maintained over such long periods. He is very quick to
>> attribute social status to productive individual characteristics. In
>> particular, he presumes that the achievement of status markers like
>> education or wealth is driven by social competence, which he suggests is
>> transmitted genetically.
>>
>> It seems important to note that there is more to social class than
>> “competence.” The tendency for elites to employ social, cultural and legal
>> institutions to maintain their position is well explored in the literature
>> on political economy and history. I think Clark is too quick to dismiss the
>> various institutional mechanisms through which class is transmitted in the
>> societies under investigation in this book. He argues that, because these
>> countries have different institutions and social structures, the
>> cross-country commonality in the persistence of social status is evidence
>> that these institutions do not matter. I would be surprised if this
>> convinces many readers. Of course, the broad collection of countries
>> studied in this book makes it difficult to fully explore the unique
>> institutional environments that may cause social class to persist in each
>> place. Still, I do not think that Clark gives sufficient evidence for us to
>> conclude that genetics are the primary driver of status persistence.
>>
>> Take, for example, the discussion of mobility in India (chapter 8). Clark
>> shows an extremely high degree of persistence of social status, which he
>> measures using surnames common to different castes; he also notes that
>> endogamous marriages have long been prevalent in India. Clark takes this as
>> evidence that social class is genetically transmitted — couples are more
>> likely to transmit genetic traits enabling success to their children if
>> both halves of the couple possess these traits. However, a compelling
>> alternative explanation is that India’s relatively rigid, socially enforced
>> class system precludes social mobility while simultaneously discouraging
>> marriages that cross class lines. It seems impossible to disentangle
>> institutional barriers to class mobility from genetics in this case.
>>
>> In short, Clark’s book begins a fascinating and important conversation
>> about social mobility. He favors a single, unifying explanation for the
>> persistence of social status across the globe, which may not convince many
>> readers. Still, I think Clark’s findings are important to engage with, and
>> they will factor into discussions about social mobility for years to come.
>>
>> Laura Salisbury studies historical marriage markets, income mobility, and
>> the development and consequences of historical income support programs. Her
>> publications include “Selective Migration, Wages, and Occupational Mobility
>> in Nineteenth Century America,” Explorations in Economic History, 2014.
>>
>> Copyright (c) 2014 by EH.Net. All rights reserved. This work may be
>> copied for non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given to the
>> author and the list. For other permission, please contact the EH.Net
>> Administrator (administrator at eh.net). Published by EH.Net (September
>> 2014). All EH.Net reviews are archived at http://www.eh.net/BookReview
>>
>>
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>> --------------------------
>>
>> Cheers,
>> Jim Guthrie
>>
>
>