[Magdalen] Whither Scotland?

[Roland Orr]

To complicate matters, the NO Group want different  changes to the YES 
group.
Former prime minister Gordon Brown made this point very successfully in 
the final two weeks of the NO campaign and so won the most votes.
Roland


On 20/09/2014 23:11, James Oppenheimer wrote:
> Since they voted no, I guess we should toss this subject line.
>
> James W. Oppenheimer
> *“If you have a chance to accomplish something that will make things better
> for people coming behind you, and you don’t do it, you're wasting your time
> on this Earth.”  -- *Roberto Clemente
>
> On Sat, Sep 20, 2014 at 6:03 PM, James Oppenheimer <oppenheimerjw at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> It's interesting to think how much impact genetics has over the long run.
>> For instance, If I were actually a descendent of Rashi, I would have his
>> genetic code.
>>
>> How much?  Well, if we figure twenty-five to thirty years per generation,
>> and assume twenty to thirty generations, the amount of genetic component
>> may be something like one half to the twenty-fifth or thirtieth power. That
>> would be roughly 0.000000001 give or take.  That is not very much.
>>
>> 9.313225746154785e-10 for thirty generations.  This cool rendering of real
>> numbers is essentially the number displayed, but with the decimal point
>> shifting to the left ten (10!) places.  A very small number indeed.
>>
>> However, if one postulates that the elite families consciously strive to
>> hold on to their eliteness, I suspect this all by itself would account for
>> a tendency of the elites to stay elite. Not even considering the superior
>> education and general background development the elites get...
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> James W. Oppenheimer
>> *“If you have a chance to accomplish something that will make things
>> better for people coming behind you, and you don’t do it, you're wasting
>> your time on this Earth.”  -- *Roberto Clemente
>>
>> On Sat, Sep 20, 2014 at 8:09 AM, Jim Guthrie <jguthrie at pipeline.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> A bit off track on the Scot names . . . but this is interesting research
>>> on the influence of surnames on economic well-being as well as social
>>> mobility:
>>>
>>> Published by EH.Net (September 2014)
>>>
>>> Gregory Clark, The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social
>>> Mobility. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014. xii + 364 pp.
>>> $30 (cloth), ISBN: 978-0-691-16254-6.
>>>
>>> Reviewed for EH.Net by Laura Salisbury, Department of Economics, York
>>> University.
>>>
>>> In The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility,
>>> Gregory Clark (UC-Davis) marshals centuries of historical data for the
>>> purpose of characterizing social mobility in the very long run. Examining
>>> the performance of individuals with historically elite surnames, he argues
>>> that social status is dramatically more persistent than most existing
>>> estimates suggest. Covering a broad range of geographic regions and
>>> historical periods, Clark’s findings are striking. However, I find his
>>> interpretation of these findings less convincing.
>>>
>>> The book is divided into three parts. In the first part, Clark introduces
>>> his methodology for measuring social mobility, and he characterizes
>>> long-term mobility in three countries:  Sweden, the United States, and the
>>> United Kingdom. The methodology involves identifying historically elite
>>> surnames from each country and, over a very long period, tracking their
>>> relative representation in both institutions of higher learning and in
>>> professions like law and medicine. In the case of modern England, he is
>>> able to look at wealth outcomes as well. Clark finds that, in all three
>>> countries, individuals with elite surnames are significantly
>>> overrepresented in high status positions. Using these surname groups, he
>>> estimates an implied rate of intergenerational persistence in each country
>>> to be in the range of 0.75-0.80; in contrast, conventional estimates are
>>> typically less than 0.60.
>>>
>>> Clark goes on to describe the mechanism that he believes to be driving
>>> this high degree of persistence. In brief, he argues that a person’s life
>>> outcomes are determined in part by what he calls “social competence,” or
>>> underlying ability, which is only imperfectly measured by the life outcomes
>>> of the person’s parents. As surnames are transmitted across many
>>> generations, they embed more information about this underlying competence,
>>> hence the greater degree of persistence measured using surnames instead of
>>> parental achievements.
>>>
>>> Clark suggests that underlying social competence is transmitted across
>>> generations genetically, or by a social process resembling the transmission
>>> of genes. In part 2, he presents evidence on socioeconomic persistence from
>>> other countries (India, China, Chile, and Japan) that he argues is
>>> consistent with this interpretation. In particular, he shows that
>>> persistence of social status is high in an endogamous society, and the
>>> degree of persistence is not appreciably interrupted by political regime
>>> change. Part 3 contains closing remarks on the future of social mobility
>>> within and across countries.
>>>
>>> This book contributes a great deal to the discussion on social mobility.
>>> One of Clark’s major insights is that studies of mobility across two
>>> generations — the industry standard until recently — must be plagued with
>>> error in the measurement of socioeconomic status, and that taking a very
>>> long view of mobility may yield very different results. The major roadblock
>>> that other researchers have encountered is that there is little data out
>>> there that would enable such a study. The use of surnames is an inventive
>>> tool for overcoming these data limitations.  Other researchers (myself
>>> included) are taking steps to incorporate multiple generations into studies
>>> of intergenerational income transmission using historical census data.
>>> However, very few such studies are able to look at mobility over more than
>>> a few generations. Clark’s book uses data spanning hundreds of years, and,
>>> as such, provides an entirely novel perspective on this important question.
>>>
>>> Of course, the ability to take this very long-run view comes at a cost.
>>> The bulk of the book centers on the transmission of professional or
>>> educational attainment among elite families or ethnic and religious groups;
>>> most studies examine income transmission for a nationally representative
>>> sample of families. The process of status transmission among elites may be
>>> fundamentally different from the process of status transmission in the
>>> entire population. If this is the case, it means that Clark’s results apply
>>> to a very particular type of persistence and should be interpreted as such.
>>> Clark acknowledges this possibility and argues against it; however, I think
>>> this is still an open question. Nonetheless, even if the book merely
>>> demonstrates persistence of elite status over many generations, this in
>>> itself is an important contribution that both academics and policymakers
>>> should value.
>>>
>>> What I find less convincing is Clark’s account of the mechanism by which
>>> social status is maintained over such long periods. He is very quick to
>>> attribute social status to productive individual characteristics. In
>>> particular, he presumes that the achievement of status markers like
>>> education or wealth is driven by social competence, which he suggests is
>>> transmitted genetically.
>>>
>>> It seems important to note that there is more to social class than
>>> “competence.” The tendency for elites to employ social, cultural and legal
>>> institutions to maintain their position is well explored in the literature
>>> on political economy and history. I think Clark is too quick to dismiss the
>>> various institutional mechanisms through which class is transmitted in the
>>> societies under investigation in this book. He argues that, because these
>>> countries have different institutions and social structures, the
>>> cross-country commonality in the persistence of social status is evidence
>>> that these institutions do not matter. I would be surprised if this
>>> convinces many readers. Of course, the broad collection of countries
>>> studied in this book makes it difficult to fully explore the unique
>>> institutional environments that may cause social class to persist in each
>>> place. Still, I do not think that Clark gives sufficient evidence for us to
>>> conclude that genetics are the primary driver of status persistence.
>>>
>>> Take, for example, the discussion of mobility in India (chapter 8). Clark
>>> shows an extremely high degree of persistence of social status, which he
>>> measures using surnames common to different castes; he also notes that
>>> endogamous marriages have long been prevalent in India. Clark takes this as
>>> evidence that social class is genetically transmitted — couples are more
>>> likely to transmit genetic traits enabling success to their children if
>>> both halves of the couple possess these traits. However, a compelling
>>> alternative explanation is that India’s relatively rigid, socially enforced
>>> class system precludes social mobility while simultaneously discouraging
>>> marriages that cross class lines. It seems impossible to disentangle
>>> institutional barriers to class mobility from genetics in this case.
>>>
>>> In short, Clark’s book begins a fascinating and important conversation
>>> about social mobility. He favors a single, unifying explanation for the
>>> persistence of social status across the globe, which may not convince many
>>> readers. Still, I think Clark’s findings are important to engage with, and
>>> they will factor into discussions about social mobility for years to come.
>>>
>>> Laura Salisbury studies historical marriage markets, income mobility, and
>>> the development and consequences of historical income support programs. Her
>>> publications include “Selective Migration, Wages, and Occupational Mobility
>>> in Nineteenth Century America,” Explorations in Economic History, 2014.
>>>
>>> Copyright (c) 2014 by EH.Net. All rights reserved. This work may be
>>> copied for non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given to the
>>> author and the list. For other permission, please contact the EH.Net
>>> Administrator (administrator at eh.net). Published by EH.Net (September
>>> 2014). All EH.Net reviews are archived at http://www.eh.net/BookReview
>>>
>>>
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>>> --------------------------
>>>
>>> Cheers,
>>> Jim Guthrie
>>>
>>