[Magdalen] The answer

[Roger Stokes]

On 07/05/2015 23:22, Lesley de Voil wrote:
> My Twitterfeed tells me that
> <
> Nate Silver @NateSilver538 6 Jun 2012
>
> Exit polls have been highly accurate in every recent election except
> 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010.
> Don't get carried away by these early results IOW!

We are in uncharted territory because of the sharp rise in support for 
the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and for the Scottish 
National Party (SNP).   The pollster who came up with this exit poll 
says that this means that there is not the same degree of confidence as 
there would have been had there not been such a sea change in the 
situation.  Of the three results declared so far (all safe Labour) UKIP 
have pushed Conservatives into third place in two seats.

Another exit poll by a different organization has shown a very different 
result.  The picture will be clearer in about 6 hours.  I am not staying 
up all night to find out.  What is worrying is that the government's 
support will be from a very restricted area of the UK.

Roger