[Magdalen] New York Times op-ed piece

[James Oppenheimer-Crawford]

Some researchers were working on fleshing out the theory of how we make
decisions.  Basically we can either study all points of view of a problem,
so far as we know, and then arrive at a decision, or we can make a quick
gut-level decision. This is an unconscious decision based on our prior
experiences.  They posited that expert executives and such would examine
and analyze the problem, then make a decision. It turned out, when they did
more work, they found the executives were just making decisions based on
hunches. Lest that appear really scary, they pointed out that these folks
had generally a lot of experience in the field, and so their hunches were
based on a lot fo cumulative experiences, and their hunches were an
unconscious amalgamation of these experiences.

What struck me about this is that business owners often seem to have this
idea that you just make a decision. The boss has this innate ability to see
the right choice. They value gut-level decisions instead of analysis. I
suppose this is why so many businesses fail, and so many seem to be
surviving because the owners spend all of their time trying to make the
think work, and barely survive.

This would explain how a man without any scientific expertise what. so.
ever. can say all scientists are liars or fakers and climate change is a
hoax driven by the Chinese to weaken our businesses. When you analyse, you
have to have a basis for what you think, do or say. But with a hunch system
of decision by dartboard, you can make up anything and it seems just as
legitimate.  The tough, courageous business leader is not swayed by the
egghead scientists. He looks past the statistics and the replicated
so-called research, and sees the plain obvious truth and is not swayed by
attempts to appeal to things like facts. He does what his gut tells him,
and, lacking in any real experience to base those gut reactions on, he is
right about as often as random chance would suggest he would accidentally
be, and yet, he knows that he is the savior, the one who has the truth, the
really correct answers.  Others will realize in time that he is the one who
is right, but for now, he will just hold to his course no matter what
anyone else says -- because they are wrong, and he is right, of course.