[Magdalen] Whither Scotland?

[Marion Thompson]

'We'll rise again...."

Marion, a pilgrim    ...today my sail I lift ....
On 9/20/2014 6:23 PM, Roland Orr wrote:
> To complicate matters, the NO Group want different  changes to the YES 
> group.
> Former prime minister Gordon Brown made this point very successfully 
> in the final two weeks of the NO campaign and so won the most votes.
> Roland
>
>
> On 20/09/2014 23:11, James Oppenheimer wrote:
>> Since they voted no, I guess we should toss this subject line.
>>
>> James W. Oppenheimer
>> *“If you have a chance to accomplish something that will make things 
>> better
>> for people coming behind you, and you don’t do it, you're wasting 
>> your time
>> on this Earth.”  -- *Roberto Clemente
>>
>> On Sat, Sep 20, 2014 at 6:03 PM, James Oppenheimer 
>> <oppenheimerjw at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> It's interesting to think how much impact genetics has over the long 
>>> run.
>>> For instance, If I were actually a descendent of Rashi, I would have 
>>> his
>>> genetic code.
>>>
>>> How much?  Well, if we figure twenty-five to thirty years per 
>>> generation,
>>> and assume twenty to thirty generations, the amount of genetic 
>>> component
>>> may be something like one half to the twenty-fifth or thirtieth 
>>> power. That
>>> would be roughly 0.000000001 give or take.  That is not very much.
>>>
>>> 9.313225746154785e-10 for thirty generations.  This cool rendering 
>>> of real
>>> numbers is essentially the number displayed, but with the decimal point
>>> shifting to the left ten (10!) places.  A very small number indeed.
>>>
>>> However, if one postulates that the elite families consciously 
>>> strive to
>>> hold on to their eliteness, I suspect this all by itself would 
>>> account for
>>> a tendency of the elites to stay elite. Not even considering the 
>>> superior
>>> education and general background development the elites get...
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> James W. Oppenheimer
>>> *“If you have a chance to accomplish something that will make things
>>> better for people coming behind you, and you don’t do it, you're 
>>> wasting
>>> your time on this Earth.”  -- *Roberto Clemente
>>>
>>> On Sat, Sep 20, 2014 at 8:09 AM, Jim Guthrie <jguthrie at pipeline.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> A bit off track on the Scot names . . . but this is interesting 
>>>> research
>>>> on the influence of surnames on economic well-being as well as social
>>>> mobility:
>>>>
>>>> Published by EH.Net (September 2014)
>>>>
>>>> Gregory Clark, The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social
>>>> Mobility. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014. xii + 
>>>> 364 pp.
>>>> $30 (cloth), ISBN: 978-0-691-16254-6.
>>>>
>>>> Reviewed for EH.Net by Laura Salisbury, Department of Economics, York
>>>> University.
>>>>
>>>> In The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility,
>>>> Gregory Clark (UC-Davis) marshals centuries of historical data for the
>>>> purpose of characterizing social mobility in the very long run. 
>>>> Examining
>>>> the performance of individuals with historically elite surnames, he 
>>>> argues
>>>> that social status is dramatically more persistent than most existing
>>>> estimates suggest. Covering a broad range of geographic regions and
>>>> historical periods, Clark’s findings are striking. However, I find his
>>>> interpretation of these findings less convincing.
>>>>
>>>> The book is divided into three parts. In the first part, Clark 
>>>> introduces
>>>> his methodology for measuring social mobility, and he characterizes
>>>> long-term mobility in three countries:  Sweden, the United States, 
>>>> and the
>>>> United Kingdom. The methodology involves identifying historically 
>>>> elite
>>>> surnames from each country and, over a very long period, tracking 
>>>> their
>>>> relative representation in both institutions of higher learning and in
>>>> professions like law and medicine. In the case of modern England, 
>>>> he is
>>>> able to look at wealth outcomes as well. Clark finds that, in all 
>>>> three
>>>> countries, individuals with elite surnames are significantly
>>>> overrepresented in high status positions. Using these surname 
>>>> groups, he
>>>> estimates an implied rate of intergenerational persistence in each 
>>>> country
>>>> to be in the range of 0.75-0.80; in contrast, conventional 
>>>> estimates are
>>>> typically less than 0.60.
>>>>
>>>> Clark goes on to describe the mechanism that he believes to be driving
>>>> this high degree of persistence. In brief, he argues that a 
>>>> person’s life
>>>> outcomes are determined in part by what he calls “social 
>>>> competence,” or
>>>> underlying ability, which is only imperfectly measured by the life 
>>>> outcomes
>>>> of the person’s parents. As surnames are transmitted across many
>>>> generations, they embed more information about this underlying 
>>>> competence,
>>>> hence the greater degree of persistence measured using surnames 
>>>> instead of
>>>> parental achievements.
>>>>
>>>> Clark suggests that underlying social competence is transmitted across
>>>> generations genetically, or by a social process resembling the 
>>>> transmission
>>>> of genes. In part 2, he presents evidence on socioeconomic 
>>>> persistence from
>>>> other countries (India, China, Chile, and Japan) that he argues is
>>>> consistent with this interpretation. In particular, he shows that
>>>> persistence of social status is high in an endogamous society, and the
>>>> degree of persistence is not appreciably interrupted by political 
>>>> regime
>>>> change. Part 3 contains closing remarks on the future of social 
>>>> mobility
>>>> within and across countries.
>>>>
>>>> This book contributes a great deal to the discussion on social 
>>>> mobility.
>>>> One of Clark’s major insights is that studies of mobility across two
>>>> generations — the industry standard until recently — must be 
>>>> plagued with
>>>> error in the measurement of socioeconomic status, and that taking a 
>>>> very
>>>> long view of mobility may yield very different results. The major 
>>>> roadblock
>>>> that other researchers have encountered is that there is little 
>>>> data out
>>>> there that would enable such a study. The use of surnames is an 
>>>> inventive
>>>> tool for overcoming these data limitations.  Other researchers (myself
>>>> included) are taking steps to incorporate multiple generations into 
>>>> studies
>>>> of intergenerational income transmission using historical census data.
>>>> However, very few such studies are able to look at mobility over 
>>>> more than
>>>> a few generations. Clark’s book uses data spanning hundreds of 
>>>> years, and,
>>>> as such, provides an entirely novel perspective on this important 
>>>> question.
>>>>
>>>> Of course, the ability to take this very long-run view comes at a 
>>>> cost.
>>>> The bulk of the book centers on the transmission of professional or
>>>> educational attainment among elite families or ethnic and religious 
>>>> groups;
>>>> most studies examine income transmission for a nationally 
>>>> representative
>>>> sample of families. The process of status transmission among elites 
>>>> may be
>>>> fundamentally different from the process of status transmission in the
>>>> entire population. If this is the case, it means that Clark’s 
>>>> results apply
>>>> to a very particular type of persistence and should be interpreted 
>>>> as such.
>>>> Clark acknowledges this possibility and argues against it; however, 
>>>> I think
>>>> this is still an open question. Nonetheless, even if the book merely
>>>> demonstrates persistence of elite status over many generations, 
>>>> this in
>>>> itself is an important contribution that both academics and 
>>>> policymakers
>>>> should value.
>>>>
>>>> What I find less convincing is Clark’s account of the mechanism by 
>>>> which
>>>> social status is maintained over such long periods. He is very 
>>>> quick to
>>>> attribute social status to productive individual characteristics. In
>>>> particular, he presumes that the achievement of status markers like
>>>> education or wealth is driven by social competence, which he 
>>>> suggests is
>>>> transmitted genetically.
>>>>
>>>> It seems important to note that there is more to social class than
>>>> “competence.” The tendency for elites to employ social, cultural 
>>>> and legal
>>>> institutions to maintain their position is well explored in the 
>>>> literature
>>>> on political economy and history. I think Clark is too quick to 
>>>> dismiss the
>>>> various institutional mechanisms through which class is transmitted 
>>>> in the
>>>> societies under investigation in this book. He argues that, because 
>>>> these
>>>> countries have different institutions and social structures, the
>>>> cross-country commonality in the persistence of social status is 
>>>> evidence
>>>> that these institutions do not matter. I would be surprised if this
>>>> convinces many readers. Of course, the broad collection of countries
>>>> studied in this book makes it difficult to fully explore the unique
>>>> institutional environments that may cause social class to persist 
>>>> in each
>>>> place. Still, I do not think that Clark gives sufficient evidence 
>>>> for us to
>>>> conclude that genetics are the primary driver of status persistence.
>>>>
>>>> Take, for example, the discussion of mobility in India (chapter 8). 
>>>> Clark
>>>> shows an extremely high degree of persistence of social status, 
>>>> which he
>>>> measures using surnames common to different castes; he also notes that
>>>> endogamous marriages have long been prevalent in India. Clark takes 
>>>> this as
>>>> evidence that social class is genetically transmitted — couples are 
>>>> more
>>>> likely to transmit genetic traits enabling success to their 
>>>> children if
>>>> both halves of the couple possess these traits. However, a compelling
>>>> alternative explanation is that India’s relatively rigid, socially 
>>>> enforced
>>>> class system precludes social mobility while simultaneously 
>>>> discouraging
>>>> marriages that cross class lines. It seems impossible to disentangle
>>>> institutional barriers to class mobility from genetics in this case.
>>>>
>>>> In short, Clark’s book begins a fascinating and important conversation
>>>> about social mobility. He favors a single, unifying explanation for 
>>>> the
>>>> persistence of social status across the globe, which may not 
>>>> convince many
>>>> readers. Still, I think Clark’s findings are important to engage 
>>>> with, and
>>>> they will factor into discussions about social mobility for years 
>>>> to come.
>>>>
>>>> Laura Salisbury studies historical marriage markets, income 
>>>> mobility, and
>>>> the development and consequences of historical income support 
>>>> programs. Her
>>>> publications include “Selective Migration, Wages, and Occupational 
>>>> Mobility
>>>> in Nineteenth Century America,” Explorations in Economic History, 
>>>> 2014.
>>>>
>>>> Copyright (c) 2014 by EH.Net. All rights reserved. This work may be
>>>> copied for non-profit educational uses if proper credit is given to 
>>>> the
>>>> author and the list. For other permission, please contact the EH.Net
>>>> Administrator (administrator at eh.net). Published by EH.Net (September
>>>> 2014). All EH.Net reviews are archived at http://www.eh.net/BookReview
>>>>
>>>>
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>>>>
>>>> --------------------------
>>>>
>>>> Cheers,
>>>> Jim Guthrie
>>>>
>>>
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